As the New England Patriots travel to Denver this weekend for Sunday’s AFC Championship Game against the Broncos, the organization will have its eyes set on one clear goal: earning a trip to the Super Bowl. New England opened the postseason with a 16-3 Wild Card win over the Los Angeles Chargers before following it up with an impressive defensive performance in an overpowering 28-16 victory over the Houston Texans in the Divisional Round.

While the Patriots have been impressive through two playoff games, several aspects of their play warrant closer examination—Drake Maye’s ball security, Will Campbell’s ability to hold up against elite edge rushers, and whether TreVeyon Henderson can provide a spark out of the backfield. With that in mind, here are five key factors that will shape Sunday’s matchup in Denver.

1. The sheer difficulty of the environment

The Patriots will absolutely have their hands full. Crowd noise, the altitude, and the narrative of it being one of the league’s toughest places to play—all very real components of competing at the Broncos’ stadium, Empower Field at Mile High. It’s also the same venue where a Tom Brady-led Patriots team, coached by Bill Belichick, lost to Denver in the conference championship game in both 2013 and 2015.

A lot of time has gone by, yes, though it goes to show just how difficult it is to win in this stadium—even for the Patriots teams that were in their heyday. New England will need to be ready to go from the first snap—a fast start is paramount in a game of such magnitude. Mike Vrabel will need to have his players prepped for anything on Sunday.

2. A backup quarterback on the opposing side

Likely the main storyline entering this matchup is the injury to Denver’s starting quarterback, Bo Nix, who suffered a broken bone in his ankle on the second-to-last snap of of the Broncos’ Divisional Round win over the Buffalo Bills. It prompted Head Coach Sean Payton to reveal the news in his postgame presser, leaving NFL fans across the country stunned.

In steps backup quarterback Jarrett Stidham. Patriots Offensive Coordinator Josh McDaniels has plenty of familiarity with Stidham, having coached him after New England drafted him in the fourth round of the 2019 NFL Draft, as well as when McDaniels was the Head Coach of the Las Vegas Raiders.

Furthermore, New England needs to disguise their looks defensively and send consistent blitzes to confuse Stidham throughout the game, as the signal caller hasn’t thrown a regular-season or playoff pass in the NFL in over two years (Yahoo Sports). Additionally, stopping the run and forcing Stidham to beat you with his arm could be the most efficient way to force turnovers and allow the Patriots to have short fields.

3. Keeping the pocket as clean as possible

Tackle Will Campbell has his work cut out for him. The rookie left tackle has had an impressive season, yet he has had his clear moments of inexperience, especially in the postseason. He scuffled against Los Angeles’ Odafe Oweh in the Wild Card Round, and then struggled mightily against Houston’s Will Anderson Jr. in the following game.

Anderson Jr. is an immensely talented player who can give any NFL offensive tackle a hard time, but it’s concerning for a Patriots team that has put the ball on the ground on several occasions in just two games throughout these playoffs. Campbell will have to deal with Denver’s talented edge rushers, Nik Bonitto and Jonathon Cooper, depending on which side they line up on from snap to snap. Campbell will surely have help, though, whether it’s with a running back, tight end, or bringing in an additional tackle for particular snaps to help chip on the left side with Campbell.

4. The pending playoff impact of TreVeyon Henderson

Backup running back TreVeyon Henderson is due for a resurgent performance in Sunday’s game, having gotten off to a slow start in his first two career playoff contests. Luckily for the Patriots offense, Rhamondre Stevenson has been excellent over the past month plus, and it has allowed New England to get away with some subpar performances from Henderson.

If Henderson can get going against a tough Broncos defensive unit coordinated by Vance Joseph, it’ll only be a bonus for a Patriots offense that can get going in a hurry through the air.

5. Drake Maye playing clean, mistake-free football

This game could ultimately be won or lost by Drake Maye’s decision-making. A trip to the Super Bowl—or the Patriots’ season coming to a crashing halt—could hinge on how well Maye protects the football.

Denver star cornerback Patrick Surtain II, widely regarded as the top cover corner in the NFL, will shadow either Stefon Diggs or Kayshon Boutte for the majority of the game. The aforementioned Nik Bonitto poses a constant threat of getting after the quarterback—he’s up there with some of the best pass rushers in the league. Maye will need to make quick, smart decisions, deliver the ball on time, and execute short throws. If the deep shot is available, though, Maye can—and will—take it. Most importantly, however, will be Maye’s ball security. After losing multiple fumbles against a vaunted Texans defense in the Divisional Round, Maye cannot afford to give Denver easy opportunities to produce points—especially with a backup quarterback in Stidham on the other side.

Mike Vrabel, Head Coach, New England Patriots—Image by New England Patriots / patriots.com

Final score prediction

If Drake Maye gets off to a fast start, takes care of the football, and New England’s defense can stifle Jarrett Stidham just enough to force mistakes, the Patriots will, in all likelihood, be booking their flights to Santa Clara and Levi’s Stadium for Super Bowl LX.

In a season where most fans across the region expected gradual improvement and only a few more wins than the four achieved in each of the past two seasons, there should be an extensive amount of optimism from the fanbase, regardless of the outcome of Sunday’s game.

Final score prediction: Patriots 28, Broncos 23

Denver keeps the game close by forcing two key Drake Maye turnovers in the second half, and leans on Sean Payton putting Jarrett Stidham in manageable situations. The Patriots respond and drive down the field with a few minutes remaining in the fourth quarter, and then force Denver into a must-have fourth down on their own side of the field. The Patriots get the stop, punching their ticket to their first Super Bowl since 2019, and setting up a rematch against Sean McVay and the Los Angeles Rams—the same two teams that met that year.

The AFC Championship Game between the Patriots and Broncos kicks off Sunday, January 25, at 3 p.m. ET on CBS and streams on Paramount+, with Jim Nantz and Tony Romo on the call. The NFL Today begins pregame coverage at 1 p.m. ET, while the local radio broadcast airs in New England on 98.5 The Sports Hub with Bob Socci and Scott Zolak.