To be completely honest, when I joined Beer Garden Sports as a contributor in 2021—two years after the blog launched in 2019—there was no scenario in which I imagined the New England Patriots returning to the Super Bowl this quickly.

And yet, here we are.

After two weeks of preparation, game-planning, and nonstop fan conversation fueled by both national and local media, the Seattle Seahawks and New England Patriots are set to clash in Super Bowl LX on Sunday. After previewing the matchup on Wednesday’s episode of The Sports Courtyard, the podcast version of Beer Garden Sports, I wanted to get a few more thoughts out roughly 24 hours before kickoff.

So, without further ado, let’s clear out the mental notebook and dive into my final assessment—and prediction—of the big game.

“Super Bowl LX Preview” Podcast Episode:

The sheer absurdity of the Patriots being here

Before the season, very few experts—or fans, for that matter—envisioned the Patriots appearing in the Super Bowl. Fewer expected them to host playoff games in Foxboro, reclaim the AFC East, or see second-year quarterback Drake Maye finish second in league MVP voting. Coming off two consecutive 4-13 seasons, fans across the region expected a modest improvement, but this is simply a remarkable turnaround.

Head coach Mike Vrabel, named AP NFL Head Coach of the Year at Thursday’s NFL Honors, deserves immense credit for his ability to rebuild the culture and identity of the Patriots’ locker room.

Despite lingering doubts from the outside, the Patriots finished with a 14-3 regular season record and became the first team in NFL history to post an undefeated road record. Critics will push back with a favorable schedule throughout the entire season—including some postseason breaks—though the Patriots consistently handled the games they were expected to win. The Patriots have earned their place in this game. That said, Sunday presents their most daunting test yet.

The Gonzalez-Smith-Njigba matchup

Likely the league’s top wideout this season, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, could easily be the single most important non-quarterback in this game. Smith-Njigba, who was named the AP NFL Offensive Player of the Year, will, in all likelihood, be shadowed by New England’s number one corner, Christian Gonzalez.

If Gonzalez can limit Smith-Njigba’s explosiveness just enough to limit his touches, it would go a long way toward keeping Seattle out of the endzone. It would force players like Cooper Kupp, Rashid Shaheed, and tight end AJ Barner into larger roles. Carlton Davis III will be key on Kupp, with Marcus Jones also helping out in the slot, while New England’s safeties will be tasked with preventing chunk plays over the middle.

The level of quarterback play

Both quarterbacks—Sam Darnold and Drake Maye—carry significant pressure into Sunday. For the 23-year-old Maye, the stakes are historic. He’s the youngest quarterback to start a Super Bowl since Dan Marino in 1984 (CBS Sports). He also hasn’t played particularly well throughout the postseason, making his performance a main storyline.

Keys for Maye

Seattle likely represents a top-three defense Maye has faced all season. Protecting the football is paramount. While he did so in the AFC Championship Game, turnovers plagued him in the previous two playoff games before that, though, and setting up Seattle with short fields could be costly for New England.

The Patriots’ running backs, Rhamondre Stevenson and TreVeyon Henderson, could very well be tasked with shouldering the first few drives if Maye doesn’t start well through the air. His primary targets—Stefon Diggs, Kayshon Boutte, and Hunter Henry—will be heavily involved in Josh McDaniels’ gameplan of moving the ball downfield. McDaniels was named the AP NFL Assistant Coach of the Year, another testament to the impact that coaching has had on this team.

New England’s offensive line is another critical factor. Rookie tackle Will Campbell said this week that he felt the healthiest he has since suffering an MCL sprain on Nov. 23 (Boston Herald). Similar to Gonzalez on Smith-Njigba, if New England’s line can protect Maye just enough, it could tilt the game in their favor.

Bright lights on Darnold

Darnold has come a long way since his infamous “seeing ghosts” game against the Patriots during his Jets tenure. However, he’s certainly still had his inconsistent shortcomings since then. Most recently, he struggled mightily in last year’s playoff game with Minnesota, despite leading the Vikings to a 14–3 record. This season with Seattle has followed a similar path—but Darnold has been far better in these playoffs. The lights don’t get any brighter than Super Bowl Sunday, though.

If New England can generate interior pressure with Milton Williams and Christian Barmore, forcing Darnold into mistakes, Seattle’s offense could stall at inopportune times. Also, containing Seattle star running back Kenneth Walker III is massive—especially with Zach Charbonnet sidelined—who was a great complement to Walker all season until he went down earlier in the playoffs.

Final score prediction

Super Bowl LX: Patriots 24, Seahawks 17

Both offenses produce a slow, less-than-explosive first half, with New England leading Seattle 9-7 at halftime after one turnover apiece. Both quarterbacks settle in and play a turnover-free second half.

The Patriots’ defense allows just one second-half touchdown, a kick return score by Rashid Shaheed. Down 17-9, Maye responds with his best stretch of the night, delivering a poised and outstanding fourth quarter. On Seattle’s potential game-tying drive, Darnold is picked off in his own territory, and the Patriots seal their seventh Super Bowl championship.

In the second Super Bowl meeting between the Seahawks and Patriots, and the first since the unforgettable Super Bowl XLIX in 2015, simultaneous excitement and angst will be once again be felt across the New England region.

Super Bowl LX between the Seattle Seahawks and New England Patriots kicks off Sunday, February 8, at 6:30 p.m. ET from Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, California. The game will air on NBC and stream on Peacock, with Mike Tirico and Chris Collinsworth on the call. NBC’s pregame coverage begins at 1:00 p.m. ET. In New England, the local radio broadcast will air on 98.5 The Sports Hub, featuring Bob Socci and Scott Zolak.